In Afghanistan, Trump will have to play a balancing game Donald Trump

Following the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, there is a growing discussion about what his future administration's policy towards Afghanistan might look like.

Many expect a tougher stance against the Taliban, but a closer look at Trump's track record and statements on the issue shows that he is unlikely to make any drastic changes to the pragmatic and staunchly anti-interventionist policies he pursued during his first term. your mandate in power.

During his first term as president, Trump made clear his position against prolonged foreign engagements, and especially the decade-long US presence in Afghanistan. He was the architect of The 2020 Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban, which paved the way for the US withdrawal from the country and ultimately allowed the Taliban to return to power.

The Doha agreement was an important turning point in America's strategy for Afghanistan. Unsatisfied with the progress of his administration's South Asia policy, frustrated by a sense of lack of accountability among military advisers, and eager to prove to his voters that he could indeed end one of America's longest and most expensive wars, Trump began to seek a quick exit from Afghanistan. And after all traditional strategies failed to produce a workable exit plan, he entered into direct negotiations with the Taliban to end the conflict.

After re-election, Trump is likely to stick to that business-oriented approach to foreign policy that remains popular with his base, favoring pragmatic deals over costly confrontations and military entanglements in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The Taliban themselves seem to believe that a Trump presidency could benefit their future prospects. For example, the Afghan government hopes that the incoming Trump administration “will take realistic steps towards concrete progress in relations between the two countries and the two nations will be able to open a new chapter in relations,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balhi said in a post on X in November shortly after Trump won the US election.

The Taliban's optimism about future relations stems from their positive interactions with the first Trump administration. After all, the first Trump administration negotiated directly with the Taliban, began the process of withdrawing the US from Afghanistan, and set the stage for their return to Kabul.

However, despite being more open to pragmatic cooperation with the Taliban than President Joe Biden and staunchly opposed to any direct military confrontation, Trump is unlikely to let the Taliban do what they want with the country or give it everything it needs , without extracting a price. If the Taliban fail to make progress on the commitments they made as part of the Doha Agreement, for example, Trump is likely to reduce US aid or make it conditional on tangible progress in certain areas.

Trump has consistently advocated cutting foreign aid as part of an “America First” approach, and he may also cut US aid to Afghanistan significantly without offering a reason or condition. He also would not hesitate to impose severe economic sanctions on the Taliban government if he concluded that it was harming American interests in one way or another.

American humanitarian aid amounts to about $40 million a week as the Taliban takeover is an important lifeline for Afghanistan's impoverished population. Any restriction or reduction in US aid would have significant consequences for its well-being and that of the fragile Afghan economy. Such a decision would deepen Afghanistan's economic crisis and further undermine progress in education, health and food security.

Since Trump's last term as president, global attention has turned away from Afghanistan. After the US withdrawal and with the start of global subsequent heated conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, the country became somewhat peripheral in Washington's foreign policy agenda. As an “America First” president who will have to spend significant time dealing with crises in the Middle East and Europe, Trump is unlikely to treat Afghanistan as anything other than a problem he has already solved.

However, Trump's isolationist foreign policy tendencies, combined with the aid cuts and economic sanctions he may impose on the Taliban, could easily lead to the collapse of the Afghan economy and once again make Afghanistan an urgent problem for the US and its allies.

Afghanistan's economic collapse could trigger a new migration crisis, significant regional instability and create fertile ground for extremist groups, such as A branch of ISIL (ISIS) in Khorasan provinceto flourish.

While Trump's non-interventionist stance appeals to an American public wary of foreign intervention, the ripple effects of a weakened and further impoverished Afghanistan could pose long-term security challenges.

Such a scenario would also have dire consequences for the Afghan people – exacerbating economic hardship and causing the potential collapse of health services, renewed conflict and further isolation from the rest of the world.

With Trump back in the White House and trying to implement his “America First” agenda, Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority on his mind. Nevertheless, the choices he makes regarding Afghanistan will have important consequences not only for the long-suffering Afghan people, but also for the entire international community.

In short, in his second term, Trump will need to strike the right balance between pragmatic non-engagement and the responsibilities of global leadership to succeed in his Afghanistan policy and ensure that his efforts to end one conflict do not lead to more a bad one.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.