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The flow of Russian gas to several European countries was stopped on New Year's Day after Ukraine refused to renegotiate a transit deal amid war with Moscow.
Ukraine's reluctance to renew a five-year transit deal is aimed at robbing Russia of revenue that Moscow can use to fund its war, but the move is likely to create an energy crisis in Eastern Europe, with Transnistria – a breakaway Moldovan region – reduce heat and hot water for households.
“This ends Russia's former dominance of the EU energy market,” said Al Jazeera reporter Jonah Hull, reporting from Ukraine's capital, Kiev. Before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia supplied about 35 percent of Europe's natural gas exports via pipelines.
With the shutdown of Russia's oldest gas route to Europe, operating for more than 40 years, Russia's share has dropped to less than 10 percent. Another gas pipeline passing through Turkey still supplies gas to countries such as Hungary.
So how will turning off the taps in the middle of the winter season affect countries, especially in Eastern Europe, and what might happen next?
Why did they stop supplying Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine?
Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Wednesday that gas supplies to Europe were halted at 8am local time (0500 GMT) after Ukraine's state oil and gas company Naftogaz refused to renew its latest five-year transit deal .
On Wednesday, Ukraine's Energy Minister German Galushchenko said in a statement: “We have stopped the transit of Russian gas. This is a historic event. Russia is losing its markets, will suffer financial losses. Europe has already decided to give up Russian gas.
The latest contract was first signed in 2020, according to which transport fees were paid to Ukraine. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Kiev would not renew the transit agreement amid the ongoing war.
How much gas did Russia export to Europe?
Many European countries began to reduce their dependence on Russian gas after Moscow invasion of Ukraine c February 2022.
At its peak, Moscow's share of European gas imports was 35 percent, but has fallen to around 8 percent.
The European Union received less than 14 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas from Russia via Ukraine as of Dec. 1, down from 65 billion cubic meters a year when the contract began in 2020.
The gas is shipped via the Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomari-Uzhhorod pipeline from Siberia through Suja, a city in Russia's Kursk region that is now under the control of the Ukrainian military. The gas moves through Ukraine to Slovakia. There, the pipeline splits into branches that deliver to the Czech Republic and Austria.
The transit deal was a financial gain for both Russia and Ukraine.
Ukrainian media quoted Serhiy Makokhon, former head of Ukraine's GTS operator, as saying Russia made significantly more money from the transit deal than Ukraine.
McCohon estimated that Russia earns $5 billion a year, a figure also reported by Reuters. On the other hand, Ukraine received annually 800 million dollars, “but most of this money is spent on the transit itself. The treasury (of Ukraine) receives 100-200 million dollars in the form of taxes and dividends,” McCohon was quoted as saying by Ukrainska Pravda.
Bloomberg estimated Russia's profits from the deal to be even higher, at $6.5 billion a year.
Will there be power shortages? Who will be affected by this?
Austria, Slovakia and Moldova relied on the transit route for their energy supply.
Austria gets most of its gas from Russia via Ukraine, while Slovakia gets about 3 billion cubic meters via the route a year, roughly two-thirds of its demand.
Austrian energy regulator E-Control said it was prepared for supply switching and should not face disruptions.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Wednesday that the supply cut would cost the eastern European nation hundreds of millions of dollars in transit revenue and a higher tax on importing other gas.
Fizzo claims that this will lead to higher gas prices across Europe. Slovakia's economy ministry said the country would have to shoulder costs worth 177 million euros ($184 million) to obtain gas via alternative routes.
Perhaps the most vulnerable is Moldova. Russia sent about 2 billion cubic meters of gas through Ukraine to the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova Transnistria annually from 2022 Transnistria, which borders Ukraine, will then sell electricity generated using Russian gas to government-controlled parts of Moldova.
Moldova has already declared a state of emergency due to the impending gas shortage. President of Moldova Maya Sandhu accused Gazprom of not considering an alternative route and said Moldova would be “harsh” this winter without Russian gas.
However, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recan said that Moldova has diversified sources of gas supply.
On Wednesday, Transnistria, home to 450,000 people, cut off heating and hot water for households.
Ukraine itself does not use Russian transit gas, according to the European Commission, which added that the bloc had prepared for the shutdown.
Has Russian gas to Europe completely stopped?
The gas pipeline passing through Ukraine was one of the last functioning routes used to export Russian gas. Other pipelines were shut down after the war in Ukraine in 2022, including the Yamal-Europe pipeline through Belarus and the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea, which sends gas to Germany.
Russia still uses the Turk Stream pipeline along the bottom of the Black Sea to export gas. The pipeline has two lines, one supplying the domestic market in Turkey and the other supplying customers in Central Europe, including Hungary and Serbia.
However, Turk Stream has a limited annual capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters for the two lines combined.
What are the alternative options for Europe?
Europe is trying to reduce its dependence on Russian gas as it buys liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the US, along with pipeline gas supplies from Norway.
“The European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to deliver gas of non-Russian origin to Central and Eastern Europe via alternative routes. It was boosted with significant new LNG import capacities from 2022. this way,” said Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, spokeswoman for the European Commission.
Slovakia's major energy supplier, SPP, said in a statement on Wednesday that it was prepared for the transition and would supply its customers via alternative routes, mainly from Germany and Hungary. However, he added that he would face additional costs for transit fees.
According to the Austrian energy regulator E-Control, Slovakia can receive gas from Hungary, roughly a third from Austria, and the remaining supplies from the Czech Republic and Poland. The Czech Republic also said it could provide Slovakia with gas transit and storage capacity.
Transnistrian energy company Energocom released a statement on Tuesday saying Moldova could meet 38 percent of its energy needs through domestic production, including 10 percent from renewable energy. Energocom added that Transnistria will import the remaining 62 percent from neighboring Romania.
