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Sudan's army may lose the last major city that controls in the western region of Darfur within days to the paramilitary forces of rapid support (RSF), according to analysts, local monitors and sources of RSF.
Observers fear that this can lead to crimes against humanity from RSF and a humanitarian disaster in El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur.
Ali Musabel, RSF adviser, told Al Jazeera: “RSF will release El-Fasher … in about 10 days.”
RSF released drones, fired artillery and bypassing El-Fasher from the east and west of January 21, according to the Laboratory for Humanitarian Research at Yale University, which relies on satellite analysis.
Al Jazeera talks with four sources in northern Darfur, who confirmed these discoveries.
“RSF always attacks from the east (to distract the enemy), but then ends them from the West,” says Nathaniel Raymond, CEO of the Humanitarian Research Laboratory.
Tumor
In April 2023, a fight for power between the RSF and the army broke out in the Civil War.
Claimed reports reveal that RSF has committed a mass murder and systematic rape of the band to capture South, east, central and western Darfur Until November 2023
Right groups blame both parties to atrocities.
RSF siege El-Fasher after several previous anti-government armed movements known as the Joint Forces are aside with the army in April to protect the city from a potential RSF attack.
Despite its military advantages against the Joint Forces, RSF could not take over El-Fasher, as the rain season extended in October and flooded roads, preventing RSF vehicles from getting there, Raymond said.
RSF that is sinking Central and East Sudan while the army is fighting In order to regain lost territory, it focuses on the acceptance of El-Fasher and cemented control over Darfur to compensate for losses elsewhere, analysts and local monitors said.
On January 25, the group killed at least 80 people in the attack in the village of Borush, about 170 km (105 miles) east of El-Fashire, according to Darfur24, a local source of news that monitors the development on site.
The AL JAZEERA Authentication Agency, Sanad, checked a video uploaded by RSF fighters in which they can be seen counting the number of killed in Borush.
Each body lay in a pool of blood in trench and looked in civilian clothes.
“The civilians raised weapons to try to protect their land. Most civilians in northern Darfur have taken some weapons … to defend themselves from RSF, “said Zakaria Mohammed, a local journalist.
Musabel said that the killed were legal goals because they were armed.
“They mobilized with weapons and threat of RSF,” he said in a voice note.
“They stole two of our cars, so we answered by killing armed men.”
Al Jazeera's report, human rights groups and United Nations' experts have documented countless RSF attacks against defenseless civilians. They often performed generalized executions and drove entire communities from their land.
Fearing such atrocities, Sudan communities have taken a weapon in an attempt to defend themselves from RSF.
Completing the genocide?
Civilians at the Zamzam camp for displaced people are particularly at risk If El-Fasher falls, according to rights and analysts groups.
The camp is about 15 km (9.3 miles) south of the city center and has a pre -war population of about 300,000.
The mass displacement of the present war has encouraged the population of more than half a million, many of which are from the stuck agricultural tribes Nearab.
They escaped what many experts describe as genocidal violence from the state -backed nomadic nomadic tribes, which began in 2003.
At that time, the Central Government laid a brutal campaign to crush mostly Nearabian groups, who rebelled against the political and economic marginalization of their people in these Arab militias.
In 2013, these Arab tribal militias were replaced as RSF by then-President Omar Al-Bashir and have since developed combat capabilities that far outweigh the “Nearabian” armed groups defending El-Fasher.
They have already buried the Zamzam camp repeatedly.
Lunch Al-Barmaki, a local journalist who has found asylum in Zamzam to avoid firing RSF and El-Fasher drones, said all roads from Northern Darfur from Zmpam are cut off by RSF and everyone in the camp believes it will be They die if El-Fasher falls on RSF.
“The war … has accepted (mostly) the form of” Arabic “tribes against Nearbian tribes,” Al-Barmaki said.
“If the RSF captures and controls El-Fasher, then the largest (ethnic) mass murder in (our) history will unfold,” she warned.
External maintenance
Throughout the war, the RSF managed to accumulate complex weapons such as drones, air missiles and artillery thanks to the unimpeded delivery lines from Chad, Libya and South Sudan.
By comparison, the army supported joint forces receive random airlines from major army ammunition.
UN experts, rights groups and even US MPs blame the United Arab Emirates for delivering RSF with avant -garde ammunition, including norinco AH4 howitzers, a weapon made by China.
The Foreign Ministry of the UAE has denied in an email to Al Jazeera that it has once supported every warring party in the conflict.
“The main focus of the UAE in Sudan remains on dealing with the catastrophic humanitarian crisis. We continue to call for the immediate cessation of the fire and a calm resolution of this conflict created by man. In this regard, the UAE has already made it absolutely clear that it does not provide any support or supply to any of the two warring warring countries in Sudan, “the statement said.
At the end of 2024, US Senator Chris van Holen revealed a letter from Bret McGurk, then -Coordinator of the Middle East and North Africa Security Council, which said the US government had received assurances that the UAE “does not transfer weapons to now RSF and they won't go ahead. “
Despite McGurk's assurances, on January 24, Van Holen and US representative Sarah Jacobs said they were still blaming the UAE for weapons to RSF.
Raymond also did it and said the UAE played a decisive role in helping the RSF to capture El-Fasher, citing recent allegations that he was casting a weapon in Southern Darfur.
He believes that the global community must do more in order to end the conflict and protect civilians.
“The international community is lacking in action,” Raymond said.
“There must be green areas, areas without flight and civilian protection forces. These are the conversations we had to make 18 months ago, “he told Al Jazeera
