Can Europe guarantee the security of Ukraine without the United States? | NATO NEWS

By contacting London over the weekend, European leaders have declared that they will work to gather a plan to end the war in Ukraine, but certainly guarantees the country that has been the victim of a full -fledged Russian invasion of February 2022.

The UK meeting followed near the heels of a catastrophic visit to the White House by Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski, during which he was publicly injured by US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance to resist their unconditional peace plan with Russia.

Trump has made it clear that the United States will not provide security guarantees to Ukraine, calling instead of Europe's military forces to take responsibility.

At meetings with Trump in Washington last week, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Kyer Starmer and they both pointed out to send troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers if a deal to end the war of Russia was reached.

But can Europe meaningfully ensure the security of Ukraine's security without the United States supporting it? What are the real security opportunities in Europe? How dependent is the region of American support? And what threat is Russia?

What role are the US playing in European security?

The United States has been central to European security since the end of World War II, when it helped to establish the organization of the Northern Atlantic Treaty (NATO) and unleashed hundreds of thousands of soldiers in Europe to challenge Soviet influence. He has maintained this security guide since then, while expanding the condition of his global superpower.

As of July 2024, the United States had about 65,000 active -duty soldiers permanently located across Europe, along with extensive weapons, defense systems and other NATO vital assets, according to the US Government Center.

This includes six pre -positioned arms stocks in Europe, equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, eight air squadrons, four Navy destroyers and approximately 100 nuclear bombs. In addition, the United States has about 10,000 soldiers in rotary deployment in Poland, a key part of NATO's eastern flank with Russia.

In order to fund its military muscle, the US relies on a mammoth defense budget – $ 860 billion in 2024. This is more than twice as big as all other combined NATO members who are required to defend each other in the event of an attack.

At the same time, the United States has provided the bigger part of Ukraine's direct military assistance since Russia has invaded it in 2022, sending approximately $ 65 billion, according to the US State Department. When reporting other types of assistance, the United States has allocated approximately $ 183 billion for Ukraine's response as of September 30, 2024, According to Ukraine's supervisionA website created by the US government to enroll in Ukraine. The European Union, for its part, has sent a total of $ 141 billion to Ukraine, including $ 51 billion, military assistance, according to the European Commission.

However, Trump said it is now time for the United States to retreat from Europe and demand its allies on the continent to make a more severe lift.

“Strategic strategic realities prevent the United States from being focused primarily on Europe's security,” Trump Pitt Heget's Defense Minister said in NATO Allies Meeting on February 12. “European allies must lead from the front.”

How strong are European NATO allies?

European NATO members have combined 2 million soldiers with active faith, a small part of which are appointed to serve directly under the Union command. Turkiye and Poland have the most soldiers, with 481,000 and 216,000, respectively, according to the latest NATO estimates.

Followed by France and Germany, with 205,000 and 186,000 soldiers. The United Kingdom, which offered to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine with a potential peaceful deal, has 138,000 soldiers. NATO itself has a force of about 40,000 throughout its Eastern flank – covering Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.

Together, European allies of NATO have about 7,000 aircraft, 6,800 tanks, 2170 warships and six aircraft, according to the global defense index of fire power.

How would you do a hundred if the United States scaled?

Despite its significant military assets, NATO still depends on the United States to deter the threats in Europe. In the event of a major attack by a own, such as Russia, NATO is likely to expect the United States to break hundreds of thousands of additional troops in Europe, according to the economic cerebral trust Bragel.

If Europe can no longer rely on this support, improved by advanced military technology and Washington infrastructure, Bruegel estimates that the continent will have to create 50 new brigades, each of which consists of thousands of soldiers to fill the gap.

Concerned, European countries are pressure to increase their defense costs.

Last week, the United Kingdom announced that it would Increase Defense Costs Up to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, British Prime Minister Kyar Starmer said this will add about $ 16 billion every year to the defense budget, which is currently $ 68 billion. “This government will launch the largest sustainable increase in defense spending after the Cold War end,” Starmer told parliament.

Germany has announced a special fund of over $ 100 billion to modernize and strengthen its military after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, adding to its annual defense budget of about $ 52 billion. Last year, the country's defense budget struck 2 percent of GDP for the first time since the end of the Cold War as part of NATO's goal set in 2014 after Russia's annexation for Crimea of ​​Ukraine. Germany's alleged Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a December speech stressed that the military would need “at least $ 84 billion a year” in the future.

After the invasion of Russia in 2022 in Ukraine, NATO allies across Europe and Canada increased their expenses by unprecedented 18 percent. At present, 22 of the 30 European NATO members spend at least 2 percent of GDP on their defense, according to their 2023 bet.

Trump, however, claims that this is not almost enough, calling for countries In order to enhance defense They spend at least 5 percent of GDP.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rute has acknowledged Europe's need to invest more. “We have not paid enough for the last 40 years, especially since the Berlin Wall has descended,” Ruth told Politico about the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 15th. “The US correctly wants to balance this. This is completely logical. “

How does Russia look at NATO?

Russia pointed to NATO enlargement as one of its justifications for invasion of Ukraine. Since its founding in 1949, NATO has grown from 12 to 32 members, constantly moving east to the borders of Russia. Currently, six NATO members – four of which have joined the end of the millennium – border Russia, including Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.

In order to preserve the Western military alliance, Moscow has asked Ukraine, who has long since sought NATO membership, to be kept outside the grouping.

“Otherwise this problem will continue to poison the atmosphere of the European continent,” ” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said On February 18, the Trump administration, which insists on a quick end of the war, said NATO membership was not “realistic” for Ukraine.

But Western European countries view Russia's aggression as a reason for the block to strengthen. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia, the world's the largest nuclear energyhas invaded or occupied parts of several nearby countries – Moldova, Georgia, and most recently Ukraine.

Russia's direct military intervention in Moldova in the early 1990s helped the separatists brought to Russia profit of factual control of the detached region of Transnestry. And Russia A bumping invasion of Georgia in 2008 He struck a strong blow to Tbilisi and complicated his connections with the West.

After the invasion of 2022 in Ukraine, NATO has grown: before that neutral Finland and Sweden have joined the Alliance over the last two years.

How strong is Russia's military?

Russia currently has at least 1.32 million active soldiers, Hundreds of thousands of whom are fighting in Ukraine. Earlier Moscow deployed about 12,000 soldiers in Kaliningrad, its most western enclave, attached to NATO members Poland and Lithuania. However, it is reported that most of these forces were redistributed in Ukraine earlier in the conflict.

Russia also operates dozens of overseas military facilities, most located in former Soviet countries. By 2024, this included at least two main bases in Belarus, two in Kazakhstan, two in Armenia, two in the contested Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and one base in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Moldova. The largest of these facilities is the 201th military base in Dusanbe, Tajikistan, which by 2022 had approximately 7,000 Russian soldiers.

In terms of military assets, Russia has 4 292 aircraft, 5,750 tanks, 449 warships and one aircraft carrier, according to Global Firepower.

Although this capacity does not correspond to the NATO combined power, it would be a more stringed test if the United States retreated, as Trump called.

“Europeans have to wake up,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaya Callas at a Conference of the European Defense Agency on January 22. “The failure of the continent to invest in military capabilities,” she said, “sends a dangerous signal to the aggressor. The weakness invites them in. “