The proposal to end the US and Ukraine's fire: What can Russia want? | Conflict news

Russia has not yet made any answer up to a A 30-day proposal to terminate the fire He agreed by the United States and Ukraine after representatives from both sides who had discussions in Saudi Arabia's Jeddles on Tuesday.

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who attended the Jeddles talks, said at a press conference afterwards: “I'll talk to his Russian counterpart in the coming days.”

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, dressed in war fatigue, Kursk for the first time Ukraine Last year, welcoming Russian military efforts.

But experts claim that Russia is unlikely to accept the US-Ukraine proposal without fulfilling its own request.

So, what is in the proposal to end the fire and what can Russia return to?

What are the conditions for termination of fire agreed by the US and Ukraine?

Following the negotiations on Jeddah, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski made a joint statement outlining the conditions of A cessationS

The statement said the two sides agreed to “Immediate, temporary 30-day cessation of fire”. He added that as a result, the United States canceled the military assistance break and sharing intelligence for Ukraine.

The document also states that the discussion of the Jeddah emphasized the importance of humanitarian efforts during the cessation period. These include “the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civil detainees and the return of violently transferred Ukrainian children.”

However, the proposal does not mention sanctions on Russia or security guarantees for Ukraine. Nor is it mentioned that Ukraine withdraws troops from the Russian Kursk region.

Trump before rejected The idea of ​​US security guarantees, leaving this problem to the European allies of Ukraine.

According to the proposal agreed between the US and Ukraine, the latter states that he wants its European partners to be “involved in the peace process”. Some of the European allies of Ukraine, such as the United Kingdom and France, are in the process of Discuss security guarantees For the country.

On Wednesday, the Kremlin said it would become Review the details of the US proposal before an evaluation is made.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would not be rushed to a decision, Moscow said Dorsa Jazbari of Al Jazeera.

Speaking with Irish Taoisch Michelle Martin in the White House On Wednesday, Trump said, “Our people are going to Russia right now as we talk. And we hope that we can get the cessation of fire from Russia. “Trump added that he had received” positive messages “for the termination of fire, but” a positive message does not mean anything. “

Numerous media reports that Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Vikof, will visit Russia to talk to Putin in the coming days.

How can Russia respond to the proposal to end the fire?

Russia is unlikely to accept the termination of fire as it is, many analysts say.

“I think (Russia) rejection of the deal will be unreasonably political, diplomatic, but its adoption at the moment, as it is, will not happen,” says Marina Miron, a doctorate in the King's College London Defense Research Division, before Al Jazeera.

Keyer Jails, a senior consulting contributor to the London -based cerebral trust at Chatham House, said: “It would be strange and not characterized if Russia agreed with this proposal without submitting further requests.”

“Moscow may accept some form of cessation of fire, but I do not see the Kremlin change its main strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine and forcing the world to accept and establish its brutal aggression,” says Mikhail Aleksev, Professor of Political Science at the State University of San Diego, before the State University of State University, before the State University of State University, before the State University of State University, before the State University of State University. “If Russia is seriously interested in lasting peace, it will quickly agree to the cessation of the fire and will continue to negotiate the withdrawal of the troops from at least some of the occupied territories of Ukraine.”

What can Russia want in exchange for cessation of fire?

Raising sanctions and security guarantees

Giles said Russia has “every incentive” to insist on “constant security guarantees given to Ukraine” and raising sanctions, among other potential demands.

Ever since the war in Ukraine began in 2022, the US and other allies of Ukraine have imposed at least 21 692 sanctions against RussiaAimed at persons, media organizations, military, energy sector, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications, among other sectors.

Alexesev said that raising sanctions would help Russia to “restore, regroup and resume the war when it was ready and when he sees the attention and resources of other great powers, diverted elsewhere.”

Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Kursk

Another request that Russia can make is that the Kursk region is cleared of Ukrainian troops, Miron said. On August 6, 2024, the Ukrainian forces began surprise invasion of the Russian KurskExtraction of territory in Russia.

Ukraine has since lost a position in Kursk and the Russian army announced Faded profitsS Valery Gerasimov told Putin during his visit on Wednesday that Russian forces have won 1,100 square km (425 square miles) from Kursk.

Miron added: “Until the fire is stopped and everyone is on the same page, it will be the time that will probably give the Russians the necessary time to return at least Kursk so as to remove any potential negotiations for Ukraine.”

US supporting Russia's demands

“If the past performance is any guide, Russia's demands will be supported by the US,” Giles said.

“I don't think Ukraine had any way to dictate any rules here. The United States said, “This is your choice, you are no longer the subject, you are an object.” This is actually demonstrated. “